Sunday, May 16, 2021

Bloomberg: It will take 7 years for life to return to normal before Corona

The agency “Bloomberg” predicted that the world will need 7 years to eliminate the Corona epidemic and return to what normal life was before it, based on a new calculation program based on measuring vaccination rates.

Starting with the fact that vaccines provide a measurement tool to estimate when the pandemic will end, Bloomberg has created the largest database of Corona doses received by some residents in different places of the world, with a total of 119 million doses.

The agency based its calculation program on a principle launched by US science officials, such as White House chief physician Anthony Fauci, that returning life to normalcy requires vaccination of 70 to 85 percent of the world’s population.

And the Vaccine Tracker created by Bloomberg shows that some countries are progressing much faster than others towards the goal of vaccinating 75 percent of their population with two doses.

According to the program, Israel – which has the highest vaccination rate in the world – is heading to reach this rate within only two months, while the United States will reach this rate by the beginning of 2022 with a variation in speed according to states (North Dakota may reach it 6 months before Texas).

With the acceleration of the vaccination rate in rich western European countries compared to the rest of the world, the population of the planet as a whole will need 7 years to receive the vaccine, compared to the current rate, according to the program. Only a third of the countries in the world have yet to start vaccination campaigns.

Calculation method
The aforementioned calculation program represents the latest feature of Bloomberg’s “Corona Tracker”, as forecasts are updated daily based on data on average daily vaccinations, collected from 67 countries.

The program provides a simultaneous overview of the instantaneous vaccination rates, as it uses the latest rolling average of vaccinations, meaning that the more vaccinations there are, the less time it takes to reach the 75 percent point.

According to Bloomberg, the numbers will be rapidly changing, especially in the early days, and will be greatly affected by the temporary disruptions that may arise during the vaccination process. For example, the target date in New York was pushed back to 17 months after a snowstorm prevented some residents from getting their vaccinations and then decreased to 13 months now.

Likewise, in Canada, the vaccination rate has declined in recent weeks by half, following reports of delayed vaccine shipments, which may take more than 10 years to reach the 75 percent point. But the matter may change after the Canadian government signed contracts to purchase more per capita vaccine doses than any other country.

Bloomberg suggested that the global pace would accelerate with the availability of more vaccines, especially since a number of the largest vaccine manufacturing centers in the world in India and Mexico have recently started work, and that countries have contracted more than 8.5 billion vaccine doses through more than 100 agreements monitored by the agency.

‘Herd immunity’
Vaccines provide protection from corona within a few weeks of receiving doses, but the limited access to these doses to a small number of individuals in a community means that the virus spreads unchecked.

As more individuals receive the vaccine, the vaccinated groups begin to build collective defenses against the virus and prevent its transmission, in what is known as “herd immunity.”

Some scientists define this immunity as the point at which the virus cannot continue to spread. For example, even if there is a cluster of measles cases in an unvaccinated society, herd immunity prevents the epidemic from spreading throughout the country.

Scientists differ in opinions about when this immunity is achieved, as some assert that it can begin even before 75 percent of the world’s population is fully vaccinated.

Statistics Mechanism
Currently available vaccines require two doses to achieve full immunization. Bloomberg’s calculations program relies on giving two doses per person, but it does not distinguish between the first or the second. This splitting of doses can distort daily vaccination rates and is not available in more than 20 percent of the countries Bloomberg tracks.

Concurrently, a new vaccine from the US company “Johnson & Johnson” showed positive results using a single dose in clinical trials. And if approved, Bloomberg will adjust the required percentage of the number of doses in proportion to the market share of this vaccine in each country.

Although it has not been authorized to use these vaccines for children, the Bloomberg Accounts program does not exclude children in the target community, since the virus also infects them.

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